" Dollar could end the year at Rp 10,900 per U.S. dollar . But it is likely to weaken slightly in Rp 11.700 at the end of semester one . So weakened first , then be strengthened , " said Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi in Jakarta , Wednesday ( 04/16/2014 ) .
Standard Chartered Research estimates in the second quarter of 2014 will be weaker rupiah at Rp 11,700 per U.S. dollar , and rose again on the third quarter 2014 at Rp 11,300 per U.S. dollar . In the fourth quarter of 2014 new dollars estimated at Rp 10,900 per U.S. dollar .
Entering triwilan I -2015 , predicted regained rupiah at Rp 10,500 per U.S. dollar . The pattern would be repeated weakening rupiah , since the second quarter of 2015 are expected to come under pressure on the rupiah at Rp 10,800 per U.S. dollar .
Standard Chartered Bank senior economist Fauzi Ichsan suggests , pressure dollars during the first half of this year due to domestic political risk factors , current account deficit , on the other hand influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy of tapering off .
On the other hand , he also saw , there was a deliberate Bank Indonesia " allow " the rupiah weakened while it is in line with the fundamentals of Indonesia. BI deliberately slowing import growth .
" Policy ( BI ) is indeed leads to suppress the curent account deficit ( CAD ) . Because, if it CAD swell , Rupiah so unattractive and suppress the economy , " he said .
(see also: jenis burung kenari )
In addition to the projection of dollars , Standard Chartered Research results also showed that Indonesia's GDP growth forecast of 5.8 percent this year . The returns on 10 -year government securities at the end of the year by 8 percent , the trade balance is forecast for a surplus of 10 billion dollars , and the current account balance of minus 24.9 billion U.S. dollars . Meanwhile, the estimated reserves of 110 billion U.S. dollars translucent .